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Prediction for CME (2023-11-27T06:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-27T06:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27889/-1
CME Note: Wide S/SW filament eruption seen in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is filament eruption spanning from S30W10 to S10W40. Liftoff seen starting at 2023-11-27T05:20Z in SDO AIA 304. Filamentary material seen leaving the surface, and post-eruptive brightening also seen in SDO AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 imagery. Moving field lines off the SW limb seen in SDO AIA 171 at 05:45Z. Dimming and ejecta seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 05:30Z. There is no clear evidence of a CME arrival in real time solar wind timelines at L1. There is however a slight chance that this CME combined with two later, more prominent, CMEs: 2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001 and 2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001but for the later combined arrival at 2023-11-30T23:29Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-30T08:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 575
Longitude (deg): 011W
Latitude (deg): 31S
Half-angular width (deg): 36

Notes: Glancing impact most likely. May be enhanced by further glance from 27/2340 UTC CME from NE, likely also passing on 30 Nov. 
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite/Richard Stone

Lead Time: 41.83 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-11-28T14:10Z

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